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Lebanon’s Upcoming Parliamentary Elections:
Will Hezbollah Lead the Next Lebanese Government?
By Doreen Khoury
On June 7th 2009 Lebanon will hold parliamentary elections, the outcome of which will determine the course of the small Middle Eastern’s country following four years of internal political polarization and occasional violence. Lebanon entered a new phase in its history after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri in February 2005 and in one way or another, its aftereffects are being felt in the run-up to the election especially following the release of the four detained Lebanese security chiefs (arrested for their alleged complicity in the Hariri assassination) and more recently, the Der Spiegel report which alleges that Hezbollah played a role in the assassination.
The big question concerning the upcoming election is whether the pro-Western March 14 Alliance, led by Rafiq al-Hariri’s son Saad and Druze leader Walid Junblatt, will retain their parliamentary majority, or whether, as many analysts are predicting, the Hezbollah-led opposition (backed by Iran and Syria) will win. Secondly, in the event of an Opposition victory, which will most likely be by a very small margin, there are two possible post-election scenarios: A national unity government which represents all major factions led by a neutral prime minister, or a government led by Hezbollah and its main ally, Christian leader Michel Aoun and his Free Patriotic Movement. Read... |
